Hello traders,
August kicks off with futures markets under pressure and volatility on deck.
This is not just another jobs-day. It is a high-stakes collision between policy shock and economic signal.
And if you trade futures, you know this is when the real work begins.
Early Friday, Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures all slipped as President Trump’s massive tariff package took effect.
This is not a theory anymore. It is the law. Over 60 trading partners now face tariffs between 10 and 41 percent.
Canada got hit with a brutal 35 percent rate right out of the gate. Countries running trade deficits are automatically charged more.
If this market feels like it’s testing you, that’s because it is. Volatility rewards the prepared, not the reckless. Learn how I manage size and stay sharp when things get wild.
The global balance just tilted, and futures traders are already pricing in the ripple effects.
What makes this moment so critical is the perfect overlap with July jobs data.
Expectations are soft. Payrolls likely slowed. Unemployment might tick up to 4.2 percent. But claims remain low, suggesting resilience beneath the surface.
The market is watching for one thing today: confirmation or contradiction. If jobs miss, and tariffs stick, risk-off sentiment could spread fast.
That is why futures are the first battleground.
Whether you trade equity indexes, oil, gold or agricultural products, the charts are reacting to both fear and fact. Crude is hovering near 70 dollars as traders assess global demand risk.
If you’re curious why I can’t take my eyes off the dollar right now—and how its next move could ripple through every market you trade. I’ve broken it all down. Take a look here.
Gold is catching safe-haven bids again. And tech stocks, despite strong earnings from Meta and Microsoft, are not immune to the weight of macro uncertainty.
Amazon’s weak outlook reminds us that not all clouds are bullish.
What the Fed does next is now a guessing game.
Rate cut hopes are fading. Powell made it clear this week that there is no urgency to ease.
And if tariffs push inflation higher, expect even more hesitation from policymakers.
For traders, that means the pivot may be further than the market wants to believe.
The VIX is rising.
Yields remain elevated. And futures volume is telling you all you need to know. There is positioning happening in real time. This is not a day to force trades. This is a day to wait for the reaction. Follow the second move, not the first. Watch where the price accepts or rejects the data.
If you are in the seat today, manage risk tightly. Volatility is not just likely. It is guaranteed.
And that, for a futures trader, is an opportunity if you are prepared.
See you in the next one.
Imre Gams
Editor, The Trading Room
