Hello traders,
August 13 opens with equity index futures hovering at record territory, lifted by Tuesday’s softer-than-expected CPI report and the market’s near certainty that the Fed will cut rates in September.
The S&P 500 E-mini is holding above 6,400, Nasdaq 100 futures are pressing higher, and volatility has collapsed to its lowest point in weeks.
For a futures trader, this is the kind of session that feels almost too easy.
CPI came in at 2.7 percent year over year, core ticked up to 3.1 percent, but the goods deflation offsetting services inflation has convinced traders that tariffs have yet to meaningfully filter through to consumer prices.
The CME FedWatch tool now assigns a 94 percent probability to a 25 basis point cut, and even whispers of a potential 50 point move are surfacing in SOFR option flows.
The VIX tells you everything about current sentiment.
From over 20 just twelve days ago to 14.73 now, this is a full-scale volatility crush. When the fear gauge falls this quickly, it often means institutional money is leaning into risk. But it also means the market is vulnerable, complacency at these levels leaves little room for error.
Gold remains firm at $3,355, silver is outperforming, and copper has stabilized after tariff-driven swings.
Headlines love all-time highs, but the real story is in what the rest of the market isn’t doing. I break down the setup, the structure, and the trade that caught everyone off guard.
For traders, the takeaway is simple: the market is currently pricing in perfection.
Any hint of stronger services inflation, a surprise labor market rebound, or pushback from Fed officials could shake rate cut confidence and unwind these gains quickly.
The 6,400 level in /ES remains the pivot, above it, momentum can extend, but a break below with volume could flip sentiment fast.
This is the kind of environment where patience and risk control matter more than chasing every breakout. The tape says “risk on” today, but experienced futures traders know that when positioning leans too far one way, the best trades often come from the other side.
Inside my mentorship exclusive program, I break down my trades and I explain the technicals behind them so that you fully understand what the markets are doing.
We trade live together, you see exactly what I’m looking at, and more importantly, you learn how to think like a professional. No gimmicks. Just process, execution, and continuous improvement.
If you’re ready to take the step and trade live with me, registration is open now for a limited number of people.
See you in the next one.
Imre Gams
Editor, The Trading Room
