Hello traders,
I have a simple rule when the Fed is two breaths away from easing.
Let the tape speak first.
Today it is whispering one number to you again and again. Six thousand five hundred on the E-mini S&P500.
We closed Monday near 6,495 with a calm grind that hides real positioning. Price has tested this fortress all week and it keeps holding. The range is tight. Last week’s low near 6,245 to the recent high at 6,541 and change. Coiling like this rarely lasts. It resolves with speed.
Your catalysts arrive on schedule. Producer prices on Wednesday at 8 thirty. Consumer prices on Thursday. The market already prices better than an eighty percent chance of a twenty five basis point cut on September seventeen. That is plenty of optimism. Now add a VIX at 15.11. Low fear with crowded expectations is either a layup or a trap.
Energy and tech are sending you clues. Crude is basing above 60 and WTI ticked higher toward 62 to 63. That is either geopolitical premium or a quiet bet on reflation once policy loosens. Semis keep leading and the Nasdaq pushed to fresh highs after Broadcom’s AI drumbeat. That is classic pre-easing rotation into growth.
My plan is built around two ifs and clear levels.
If you’re tired of trading on edge, it’s probably your position size that’s failing you. I’ll show you how I fix it so losses stay small and winners run.
If PPI and CPI cool, I want strength through 6,520 that holds on retests.
Accept that move and your next magnets are 6,600 to 6,650 where momentum and psychology meet. I will scale in only on pullbacks to volume nodes and I will keep risk per trade small.
Calm markets invite oversized bets. Do not take the bait.
If inflation prints sticky, respect the air pocket. Lose 6,450 and the door opens toward 6,380. That is where trapped longs usually blink. I will trade short toward those pockets only if breadth and tick confirm, then cover into flushes. No hero trades.
Tariffs, tech diplomacy, markets danced on a knife’s edge. I stayed balanced, ready to lean in when the tape revealed its hand. That’s how edges are earned.
Remember what matters at inflection points. Position size first. Entry second. Your edge comes from reacting faster than the narrative, not predicting it. When everyone is already long easing, the bar for disappointment is low.
Watch the open around 6,500. Watch the first reaction at 8 thirty on Wednesday. Let the first three minutes pass. Then trade the second move, not the first spike. That is how you let the symphony play and still keep the account safe.
See you in the next one.
Imre Gams
Editor, The Trading Room
