Hello traders,
The first trading week of September is living up to its reputation.
Futures are flashing caution as volatility rises and traders look ahead to today’s JOLTS job openings report and the Fed’s Beige Book.
Asia sold off sharply, led by the CSI 300 down more than one percent, while political uncertainty in Japan weighed on the Nikkei. Europe held firmer, with the DAX and CAC showing modest gains, but the global tone remains fragile.
What stands out is the VIX climbing above 17, its highest level in weeks, signaling that traders are starting to hedge against sharper swings.
The technical picture on ES futures is showing cracks.
Volume has been light, which only increases the risk of exaggerated moves when economic catalysts hit.
On the macro front, the JOLTS report at 2 PM ET will be closely watched.
Job openings are forecast to dip slightly from 7.4 million to 7.3 million.
If the labor market shows further softening, it strengthens the case for the Fed’s September cut, already priced at nearly 90 percent odds. Later, the Beige Book will offer a regional view of economic activity, which could provide Powell with the narrative foundation for easing.
Commodities are mixed. A while back, I did signal this first break that will set the tone for months. Oil, gold, and equities are all coiled at make-or-break levels. At the time of writing this, crude oil slipped back under $65 after recent strength, while the dollar continues to weaken, sliding toward eight-week lows. Both moves fit the dovish macro theme, but the equity tape isn’t buying it yet.
This bounce looks clean, but underneath, it’s all positioning, not conviction. This is how I trade when sentiment runs hot but structure hasn’t confirmed the story. In markets like this, the real edge comes from discipline.
Not every setup is worth chasing, but every data release is worth respecting. With volatility creeping higher and liquidity thinning out, traders who focus on execution and protect capital will have the firepower to seize the real opportunities when the market finally commits to a direction.
September has a history of punishing complacency, and today’s calendar could be the spark that sets the tone for the rest of the month.
See you in the next one.
Imre Gams
Editor, The Trading Room
