Hello traders,
Thursday morning brings futures traders face to face with the most important test of the week. E-mini S&P 500 futures are holding near 6,546, just a breath away from their all-time intraday high of 6,555. Oracle’s $455 billion AI backlog lit the fuse, but today’s CPI print will decide whether momentum extends toward 6,580 or stalls at resistance.
Oracle’s surge is more than a stock story, it’s a market signal.
When a mega-cap legacy player transforms itself into an AI infrastructure leader overnight, it confirms what futures traders have been positioning for all year: the AI trade is not hype, it’s capital expenditure reality. Add to that Larry Ellison leapfrogging Elon Musk as the world’s richest man, and you have a poster child for where institutional flows are concentrating.
Yet traders know one company cannot carry an entire tape.
The macro backdrop remains fragile. August CPI is expected at 2.9 percent year-over-year, with core holding above 3 percent. A soft number could give Powell all the cover he needs to push a September cut across the finish line. A hot number, even marginally above consensus, could jolt yields higher and pull the rug out from this rally. With the Fed’s blackout period in effect, today’s release will be the last major word before the September meeting.
This bounce looks clean, but underneath, it’s all positioning, not conviction. This is how I trade when sentiment runs hot but structure hasn’t confirmed the story.
Technically, ES futures are boxed between 6,520 support and 6,555 resistance. A clean break through 6,555 on strong volume opens the path to 6,580 and possibly 6,600. Failure there sets up a pullback toward 6,500.
That’s a level that has acted as the market’s anchor through consolidation. The VIX creeping back above 15 reminds us that complacency can flip quickly when volatility catalysts hit.
Across the globe, the backdrop is mixed but leaning supportive. Japan hit another record high on hopes of policy easing, China’s CSI 300 jumped more than 2 percent on AI enthusiasm, and Europe awaits the ECB’s policy decision.
Oil remains subdued near $63 despite OPEC+ headlines, and the 10-year yield hovers at five-month lows around 4.05 percent, a tailwind for risk assets, but one that hinges on today’s inflation read.
For futures traders, the playbook is straightforward. Trade the reaction, not the forecast.
If CPI comes in soft, look for momentum continuation through 6,555 into breakout territory. If it surprises hot, protect capital as 6,500 gets tested. Oracle may have handed us a bullish spark, but it’s the CPI print that will decide whether the rally catches fire or fizzles.
Calm markets can be the loudest, if you know what to listen for. I break down how I read structure, manage risk, and stay patient when the noise fades. This is where real discipline kicks in.
In markets, this extended patience and sizing are the edge. Today is not about predicting the number, it’s about reacting faster than the crowd once it hits.
See you in the next one.
Imre Gams
Editor, The Trading Room
