Hello traders,
August 5 opens with futures traders walking a tightrope between technical weakness and fundamental confusion.
If you are trading /ES today, this is the kind of session where structure matters more than prediction. Because the market is not trending. It is trying to find its balance.
Let’s start with the context.
Last Friday’s jobs report missed hard. Only 73,000 jobs were added compared to the 106,000 expected. The immediate reaction? A sharp selloff.
The S&P lost 1.6 percent, Nasdaq dropped over 2.2 percent, and the VIX jumped nearly 22 percent.
Monday followed through and now we are sitting in what looks like a broken structure with low conviction.
The S&P 500 futures chart confirms that. We saw a failed breakout above 6,310 last week, followed by a bearish engulfing candle that broke the recent trading range. Support levels are being tested and momentum suggests sellers still have the upper hand. But that is only part of the picture.
This week, earnings are the wildcard. We have heavy hitters reporting: AMD, Disney, Uber, Eli Lilly. If strong numbers come in, you might see short-term support.
But if the market ignores good earnings and keeps selling, that is your signal that macro sentiment is in control.
Markets are moving with purpose, not panic. That’s where real opportunity lives. This is how I turn macro noise into clean setups, by letting structure lead the way.
Dollar weakness, dropping bond yields, and an 85 percent probability of a September rate cut should be supportive for equities. Yet the market is treating them as flight-to-safety signals, not growth optimism.
That tells you sentiment is fragile.
Clean structure, clear risk, and a textbook shift from balance to trend. This wasn’t theory, it was execution in real time. Here’s how I caught it, and how you can spot it next.
As a trader, your edge comes from adapting to this shift in structure.
Avoid chasing moves at the open. Let price confirm direction.
Your focus should be on execution, not opinion. These are the days when the market is not clean.
But if you trade futures, this is where you learn the most.
Respect your levels. React, do not predict. And remember: when structure breaks, price tells the truth.
See you in the next one.
Imre Gams
Editor, The Trading Room
