Hello traders,
Monday opens with S&P 500 E-minis trading around 6,504, holding the ground reclaimed after Friday’s shockingly weak jobs report.
Payrolls grew by just 22,000 versus the expected 75,000, sending September rate cut odds to near certainty at 99 percent.
For futures traders, this is the kind of backdrop where price often consolidates at the highs before the next macro catalyst.
Overnight, Asia showed resilience. The Nikkei rallied 1.5 percent on stronger GDP and the surprise resignation of Prime Minister Ishiba, which complicates the Bank of Japan’s path on rates. The Hang Seng and CSI 300 both found footing after last week’s turbulence.
In Europe, the DAX and Euro Stoxx posted modest gains despite political risks in France, showing a global risk-on tilt as the dollar and yields continue to soften.
Technically, ES is boxed in between support at 6,485 and resistance at 6,507. A breakout above 6,507 opens the path toward 6,521 and possibly 6,539, while failure there sets up a slide back to the 6,472 – 6,460 zone.
Volume profile points to fair value around 6,480 – 6,485, meaning dip buyers are likely to defend that area.
With the VIX sitting near 15, complacency is evident, but positioning shows negative gamma exposure below 6,050. That tells me if sellers gain traction, volatility could expand very quickly.
Headlines love all-time highs, but the real story is in what the rest of the market isn’t doing.
I break down the setup, the structure, and the trade that caught everyone off guard.
Flows remain supportive overall. Asset managers are heavily long while leveraged funds are still net short, a positioning split that often fuels squeeze dynamics at resistance. Dealers remain short gamma around the 6,500 strike, making this level sticky and prone to sharp pops and fades intraday.
With no high-impact US data on deck today, the focus is already shifting to Wednesday’s PPI and Thursday’s CPI.
Both prints will be pivotal for confirming the Fed’s dovish pivot and shaping expectations for how aggressive the easing cycle could get.
Curious how a real NASDAQ trade unfolds – from setup to smart exit at breakeven? I break down the logic here, the signals, and the mindset behind a no-regret trade.
It’s not flashy, but it’s the kind that keeps you consistent.
This week, traders should expect range-bound action with a bullish tilt, punctuated by whipsaws around technical levels.
See you in the next one.
Imre Gams
Editor, The Trading Room
