Hello traders,
Recently, we saw S&P 500 futures market coming back above 6,330 after Monday’s sharp reversal.
Traders are breathing easier, volatility is cooling, and the Fed rate cut narrative is heating up again.
But if you are trading this bounce blindly, you are missing the deeper story.
Friday’s brutal selloff rattled markets. Weak jobs data triggered fear, pushing the VIX above 20 and sending equity futures sharply lower.
But by Monday, that fear had faded fast. VIX fell back toward 17 and /ES futures jumped nearly 1.5 percent. At first glance, it looks like risk is back on.
Policy shock meets economic pressure. Futures are the first to speak. This is where real-time positioning reveals the truth before the headlines catch up. I break down how I navigate it, one move at a time.
This is not just optimism. It is positioning.
The reason behind the bounce is not economic strength, it is rate cut bets. After the weak employment print, odds of a September Fed cut soared above 94 percent.
That shift in expectations is driving this move.
As a futures trader, that matters more than anything.
When the market starts pricing in easier monetary policy, you often see equities rally, volatility drop, and gold catch a bid.
That is exactly what happened. Gold futures surged above 3,370 dollars, reflecting both the inflation hedge and rate sensitivity.
But here is the educational part. These moves are not permanent. They are reactionary. The real opportunity lies in understanding when sentiment disconnects from structure.
The S&P 500 futures chart is still inside a volatile range. Support holds at 6,300. Resistance sits at 6,427. Until one of those breaks, the market is bouncing between fear and hope.
That gives you tradable edges, especially if you lean on volume, VWAP, and the VIX.
Oil is a good example of this disconnect. Despite global uncertainty, crude continues to drop. WTI futures slid to 66.22 dollars after OPEC+ confirmed increased output starting in September. This has been a consistent theme since April, supply is rising, demand is soft, and price action reflects that shift.
The broader takeaway? Volatility has returned, but it is shifting form.
We are not in panic mode anymore, but this is not a smooth trend either. Expect continued range behavior until the next macro catalyst hits.
Earnings may steal the spotlight, but the real market movers often start far from home. This is how I spot global shifts early and position before the crowd catches on.
As we look ahead to earnings from AMD and Disney this week, stay disciplined.
Let price show you what traders believe, not what headlines suggest.
In this environment, structure beats sentiment every time.
Watch your levels. Watch volatility. Never chase the bounce without knowing what is underneath it.
See you in the next one.
Imre Gams
Editor, The Trading Room
